Land Use Projections

Habitat transformations caused by human land-use change are considered major drivers of ongoing biodiversity loss, and their impact on biodiversity is expected to increase further this century.

Taxonomic Scope: Amphibians, Birds, Mammals

Spatial Extent: Global

Resolution: 110km

Number of Species: 19400 (total), 9290 (birds), 4594 (mammals), 5482 (amphibians)

Source

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0406-z

Abstract

Habitat transformations caused by human land-use change are considered major drivers of ongoing biodiversity loss, and their impact on biodiversity is expected to increase further this century. Here, we used global decadal land-use projections to year 2070 for a range of shared socioeconomic pathways, which are linked to particular representative concentration pathways, to evaluate potential losses in range-wide suitable habitat and extinction risks for approximately 19,400 species of amphibians, birds and mammals. Substantial declines in suitable habitat are identified for species worldwide, with approximately 1,700 species expected to become imperilled due to land-use change alone. National stewardship for species highlights certain South American, Southeast Asian and African countries that are in particular need of proactive conservation planning. These geographically explicit projections and model workflows embedded in the Map of Life infrastructure are provided to facilitate the scrutiny, improvements and future updates needed for an ongoing and readily updated assessment of changing biodiversity. These forward-looking assessments and informatics tools are intended to support national conservation action and policies for addressing climate change and land-use change impacts on biodiversity.

Species Highlights

Visualize projected habitat loss driven by urban and non-urban land-use change for individual species under three different development scenarios by navigating to the “Projections” tab of most bird, mammal, amphibian, or reptile species pages, or start exploring from the highlighted species below: