Urban Projections

Global projected impact of urban land expansion on species habitats to 2050 under three Shared Socio-economic Pathway scenarios. Layers from Simkin et al. 2022.

Taxonomic Scope: Amphibians, Birds, Mammals, Reptiles

Spatial Extent: Global

Resolution: 220km

Number of Species: 30393 (total), 9740 (birds), 4999 (mammals), 9885 (reptiles), 5769 (amphibians)

Source

Simkin, R.D., Seto, K.S., McDonald, R.I. & Jetz, W. (2022). Biodiversity impacts and conservation implications of urban land expansion projected by 2050. Proceedings of the National Academy Science U.S.A., 119 (12) e2117297119. https://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.2117297119

Abstract

As the global urban population is poised to grow by 2.5 billion over the next 30 years, urban land conversions are expected to be an increasingly prominent driver of habitat and biodiversity loss. Mitigating these impacts urgently requires an improved understanding of where and how these biodiversity losses might occur.

Here, we use a recently developed suite of land-use projections to provide an assessment of projected habitat that will be lost to urban land expansion for 30,393 species of terrestrial vertebrates from 2015 to 2050 across three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios.

We find that urban land expansion is a contributing driver of habitat loss (≥5% of total loss) for around one-third (26 to 39%) of the species assessed. For up to 855 species (2 to 3% of those assessed), urban land is a direct driver of species imperilment, driving at least one-quarter of a net habitat loss of 10% or more. Urban clusters with the greatest threats to species due to projected expansion are predominantly located in the developing tropical regions of sub-Saharan Africa, South America, Mesoamerica, and Southeast Asia.

Our results suggest that strategies for minimizing the impacts of urban land could strengthen global biodiversity protection agreements. Collaborative, global action that focuses on vulnerable species and regions may represent an efficient strategy for avoiding the impacts forecast by our analysis.

Species Highlights

Visualize projected habitat loss driven by urban and non-urban land-use change for individual species under three different development scenarios by navigating to the “Projections” tab of most bird, mammal, amphibian, or reptile species pages, or start exploring from the highlighted species below: